Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
